Real-time forecasting of well-connected Solar Energetic Proton Events

Submitted by mnunez on Tue, 11/10/2009 - 10:55.

This model is developed by Prof. Dr. Marlon Núñez Paz (mnunez@lcc.uma.es ) from the UMA Space Weather's site at the University of Malaga.

The UMA SEP forecaster automatically predicts well-connected SEPs in real time. For more information about its performance with historical data (Cycles 22 and 23) see here. For more information about this panel see below.

Note: The upper time series shows the recent Integral Proton Flux (E>10 MeV), as well as the predicted flux for the next hours. The middle time series shows the current solar activity in terms of X-rays. The lower time series shows the estimated magnetic connection. The following figures below illustrate the possible scenarios and how the SEP forecaster shows them.

Fig 1. Prediction of a quiet scenario in terms of proton flux (E>10MeV). No SEP event is expected

Fig 2. Prediction of a well-connected SEP event. It graphically shows the expected onset and peak intensity of the prompt component (first hours) of the SEP.

The warning level is shown at the top of the highlighted area, at the right of the forecast panel (see above):

Warning level=0 means that a well-connected SEP event is not expected.
Warning level=1 means that a high magnetic connectivity has been detected. It also means that a well-connected SEP event is not expected.
Warning level=2 means that an integral proton flux enhancement is expected. It also means that a well-connected SEP event is not expected.
Warning level=3 means that a well-connected SEP event is expected. The details are shown graphically and summarized below the highlighted area.
Warning level=4 means that a SEP event is ocurring.

Prepared by the University of Málaga (Spain).

Contact:

Prof. Dr. Marlon Núñez